Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Yesterday's question

Just a quick post this morning since many sent e-mails requesting the answer to the question in yesterday's post: It was both (and not a coincidence), but Sarah actually enjoyed having company, so all turned out for the best for her.
The weather yesterday ended up much better than forecasted, so the early start did not pay off as well as we expected, but it did minimize the risk of getting stuck late in the day on an upwind return leg (and lose lots of points) if the weather had turned worse than expected. To answer other querries in the e-mails I received last night, let me just say that the daily strategy at a World Championship is quite different than at small Regionals or even National contests. Management of the probabilities to gain points versus the risks to loose large amounts (that would put one practically out of podium contention) depending on the task and weather forecast for the day is much more the key here. To put it simply, point spread management may be much more important than pure placing at the end of each day, at least until the ultimate days. For example, four days before the end of the contest, being sixth overall 80 points from first place may be a much better spot to be in than third overall and 125 points from first, as Sarah was yesterday. More in later posts about the topic, as the next 4 days may illustrate quite a set of unique strategies.... Did you notice that a "gap" in the overall scores has occurred (~ 300 points), while the top 9 overall are within a spread of only 111 points?

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