Mid-afternoon

One land out already. But the other seem to be doing OK, at least for now. It is one of those beautiful day with great looking Cu that can lead to high speeds, but with the very strong wind, 15 - 17 kt, getting low is "unfriendly" as the thermals are very chopped down low.
Since I haven't included photos recently, here are two taken on the grid this morning.

"Small" task for Day 8

Today is the day for the "small" task: a 3:00 hr TAT for the Club Class toward the North, West, backtrack North, then due South to home. The small task today is to give them a bit of rest after the Babayaga of last night (a WWGC tradition of introduction of the new comers into the "witch society," complete with bon fire, witch costumes, and broomstick), but also in anticipation of tomorrow's likely long task in what the weatherman labeled "the best weather of the contest." The other motivation for smaller tasks today is the possibility of thunderstorms at the end of the afternoon. The wind is also very strong, about 15 kt at the ground.

The start times today spread from 13:47 PM, 2 minutes after gate opening, to 14:27 PM. Sarah left in the last group with the two German Libelle, Christine Grote and Doerte Starsinski and the Italian LS1-f, Elena Fergnani. Ayala Truelove and her British teammates, as well as two of the French, Laetitia Moreau and Sophie Burgevin, left in the first group at 13:47. The third French, Magali De Cachard left 10 minutes after her teammates, while the Czech and Poles took their start around 14:01 PM. The three groups probably won't see each other on course, so it will be interesting to see which strategy wins the day.

The Club Class has the trackers today, so you can follow them on http://www.livetrack24.com/tasks/1072
Enjoy, and more news after the arrivals.

Another good day for Sarah

This was another good day for Sarah, who tied for fifth for the day. There were two landouts just short of the field, including the French Magali. Both of the two who landed out passed the finish ring 4 Km out high enough to make speed points, but not high enough to reach the field. For the first time this morning I saw combines in the fields starting the harvesting of barley, but at this point maybe only 5% of the fields have been harvested. Hopefully everything went well for both of them.
The true winner of the day was the British Ayala Truelove, who managed quite a feat by beating her two teammates by nearly 100 points and all the competition by more than 130 points. The day saw some dropping in the scores, so now the top 6 (8 yesterday), including Sarah, have opened a 130-point gap with their followers, and are all within striking range, with only 117 points separating them. This is VERY TIGHT competition. These women pilots are the world "creme de la creme" (as the locals would say) of feminine racing, and seeing such a competition is truly fascinating and exciting. Three more days to go, and everything can still happen at the top.... Stay tuned.

Mid-afternoon comments

It is 5:15 PM here, and they still have about 100 Km to go, due upwind in an approximately 15 kt wind. The sky has turned mostly blue in the northern and eastern sector, but there are still a few Cu in the Southern sector where they are. The weather has essentially turned to the "a bit worse than expected" scenario that we had anticipated yesterday. Start times were as early as 13:45 PM and as late as 14:29 PM. Clearly different strategies for the day. Sarah left at 14:22 PM, at about the same time than most of the top contenders. It is going to be interesting to see how the different decisions will pay off with respect to risk management today, in particular regarding the current top contenders staying with, and jokeying within, the very small point spread among the top 8 in Club Class. I say very small spread and top 8, instead of 9 yesterday, because an incident during the roll-out after landing yesterday resulted in unrepairable damages to the glider of Swaantje Geyer, who was the leader of the Club Class, essentially putting her out of the competition, and leaving the remaining top 8 overall within a 79 point spread, a very small margin indeed by IGC scoring formulas.
I expect today will be a key day toward the "final stretch" of the next 3 days...
Some thunderstorms are now expected during the night and possibly morning, so it is still uncertain whether tomorrow will support a task, and there is the possibility of only 2 days of flying left. We will know more tonight. Stay tuned.

Day 7 under way

They have left about an hour ago on their task for Day 7. For the Club Class, it is a 270 Km AST with a route in the southern sector very similar to yesterday's route. The airmass has dried a bit and they are seeing greater altitudes (~6500 ft). The wind is still fairly strong as yesterday and there is some chance of the Cu disappearing later on course (and therefore leading to a long return upwind in the blue), but at this point the Cu still appear plentyful in the task sector, so we keep our fingers crossed for them for good climbs and fast speed.

Yesterday's question

Just a quick post this morning since many sent e-mails requesting the answer to the question in yesterday's post: It was both (and not a coincidence), but Sarah actually enjoyed having company, so all turned out for the best for her.
The weather yesterday ended up much better than forecasted, so the early start did not pay off as well as we expected, but it did minimize the risk of getting stuck late in the day on an upwind return leg (and lose lots of points) if the weather had turned worse than expected. To answer other querries in the e-mails I received last night, let me just say that the daily strategy at a World Championship is quite different than at small Regionals or even National contests. Management of the probabilities to gain points versus the risks to loose large amounts (that would put one practically out of podium contention) depending on the task and weather forecast for the day is much more the key here. To put it simply, point spread management may be much more important than pure placing at the end of each day, at least until the ultimate days. For example, four days before the end of the contest, being sixth overall 80 points from first place may be a much better spot to be in than third overall and 125 points from first, as Sarah was yesterday. More in later posts about the topic, as the next 4 days may illustrate quite a set of unique strategies.... Did you notice that a "gap" in the overall scores has occurred (~ 300 points), while the top 9 overall are within a spread of only 111 points?

Another beautiful soaring day for Day 6

They are on their way for Day 6. The Club Class has an AST of 289 Km in the southern sector, first Southeast, then due West, then backtrack East until just South of the airport, then back home via a turning point for arrival on Runway 11. The flat southern part of the course is due to several prohibited areas that are active again during week days. Cloud base is high, approximately 6000 ft, but the wind is also high, in the 15 knot range. I expect the 289 Km task to take them around 4 or 4.5 hours. Because the day is expected to end a bit earlier than yesterday, and not wanting to do the last two legs -- that represent about 120 Km almost due upwind -- in a dying sky likely to turn blue around 5 PM, Sarah left as early as possible at 13:54 PM , just 4 minutes after the gate opening time and between 10 and 30 minutes before all other competitors... except for one... the French EA (Magali De Cachard), who stands in second place overall just ahead of Sarah, and who left about 40 seconds behind her today. Whether this is going to lead to an improvised collaboration for the difficult return late in the day upwind and probably in blue thermals; or a case of leeching to secure an overall position; or just a coincidence; we will have to wait until tonight to know for sure... But needless to say, with just 5 days to go including today, the competition is getting "serious," if not intense already, among the top contenders. The last 4 days, all forecasted to be flyable, are going to be interesting, for sure...